[P-EM11] Space Weather and Space Climate

[PEM11-P01] Successes, Misses, and False Alarms in Predicting Global/Seasonal Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrence Rates Using the ROCSAT Data

*Shin-Yi Su¹, Hsu-Hui Ho², Chi-Kwan Chao¹, Chao Han Liu³ (1.National Central University, 2.Central Weather Bureau, 3.Academia Sinica)

Keywords:Global/Seasonal Equatorial Plasma Bubble (EPB) occurrences, Success, Misses, and False Alarms in Predicting EPB Occurrences, Day-to-Day Variability of EPB Occurrences

The density variations at a constant height such as observed by the circularly orbiting ROCSAT-1 spacecraft are studied to construct a “prediction model” for the occurrences, no-occurrences, misses and false alarms of the global/seasonal equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) occurrences. This global prediction model is different from previous studies that merely provide the seasonal EPB occurrence probability at a local time sector or globally. The current model uses the density increment above the seasonal mean to predict the EPB occurrences to construct a contingency table that counts the numbers of the results in predicting EPB occurrences, no-occurrences, misses, and false alarms. Different thresholds of density increment are used for the criteria in the prediction to obtain an optimal result for the prediction model. The optimal model for predicting the global EPB occurrences varies between 75% and 85% for any season between 1999 and 2004 during the moderate to high solar activity period. The probabilities of misses and false alarms in the prediciton model are then studied for the causes of so-called day-to-day variability of EPB occurrences.