Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2024

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[E] Poster

P (Space and Planetary Sciences ) » P-EM Solar-Terrestrial Sciences, Space Electromagnetism & Space Environment

[P-EM11] Space Weather and Space Climate

Mon. May 27, 2024 5:15 PM - 6:45 PM Poster Hall (Exhibition Hall 6, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Ryuho Kataoka(National Institute of Polar Research), Mary Aronne(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center), Yumi Bamba(National Institute of Information and Communications Technology), Antti Pulkkinen(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)

5:15 PM - 6:45 PM

[PEM11-P19] Current status of a real-time prediction system of CME arrival and its magnetic field with ensemble SUSANOO-CME simulation

*Daikou Shiota1 (1.National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT))

Keywords:space weather forecast, coronal mass ejection, solar wind, MHD simulation

The predictions of CME arrival to the Earth and the southward magnetic field brought by the CME flux ropes are one of crucial tasks for space weather forecast. We recently have developed a new prediction system of CME impact (arrival of CME and magnetic field) with MHD simulation SUSANOO-CME (Shiota & Kataoka 2016). The prediction system became available in the space weather forecast operation in August 2022. Based on the real-time observation of flares and CMEs, ensemble simulation can be conducted on the supercomputer in NICT and the results are automatically visualized within 1 hour. The system is design to be operate through a browser and is available to a forecaster who does not have a supercomputer account. In case of emergency for an extremely large flare expected the association of a powerful CME, we can conduct ensemble simulation without CME observation.
In the presentation, we introduce overview of the developed system reviewing the results of several powerful CME events in 2023 used in the actual forecast operation, and discuss future directions.