[S-CG40] Science of slow-to-fast earthquakes

[SCG40-21] Cascading Foreshocks, Aftershocks, and Earthquake Swarms in a Discrete Fault Network

★Invited Papers

*KYUNGJAE IM¹、Jean-Philippe Avouac¹ (1.California Institute of Technology)

キーワード：Earthquake interaction, Foreshock, Statistical seismology

Earthquakes come in clusters formed of mostly aftershock sequences, swarms, and occasional foreshock sequences. This clustering is thought to result either from stress transfer among faults, a process referred to as cascading, or from transient loading by aseismic slip (pre-slip, afterslip, or slow slip events). The ETAS statistical model is often used to quantify the fraction of clustering due to stress transfer and to assess the eventual need for aseismic slip to explain foreshocks or swarms. Another popular model of clustering relies on the earthquake nucleation model derived from experimental rate-and-state friction [Dieterich, 1994]. According to this model, earthquakes cluster because they are time-advanced by the stress change imparted by the mainshock. This model ignores stress interactions among aftershocks and cannot explain foreshocks or swarms in the absence of transient loading. Here, we analyze foreshock, swarm, and aftershock sequences resulting from cascades in a Discrete Fault Network model governed by rate-and-state friction. We show that the model produces realistic swarms, foreshocks, and aftershocks. The Omori law, characterizing the temporal decay of aftershocks, emerges in all simulations independently of the assumed initial condition. In our simulations, the Omori law results from the earthquake nucleation process due to rate and state friction and from the heterogeneous stress changes due to the coseismic stress transfers. By contrast, the inverse Omori law, which characterizes the accelerating rate of foreshocks, emerges only in the simulations with a dense enough fault system. A high-density complex fault zone favors fault interactions and the emergence of an accelerating sequence of foreshocks. Seismicity catalogs generated with our discrete fault network model can generally be fitted with the ETAS model but with some material differences. In the discrete fault network simulations, fault interactions are weaker in aftershock sequences because they occur in a broader zone of lower fault density and because of the depletion of critically stressed faults. The productivity of the cascading process is, therefore, significantly higher in foreshocks than in aftershocks if fault zone complexity is high. This effect is not captured by the ETAS model of fault interactions. It follows that a foreshock acceleration stronger than expected from ETAS statistics does not necessarily require aseismic slip preceding the mainshock (pre-slip). It can be a manifestation of a cascading process enhanced by the topological properties of the fault network. Similarly, earthquake swarms might not always imply transient loading by aseismic slip, as they can emerge from stress interactions.