[S-SS06] Earthquake prediction and forecast

[SSS06-P07] Static stress changes associated with major earthquakes in the Chubu-Kinki regions over the past 130 years and their influence on nearby active faults

*Naoki Shukutani¹ (1.Tohoku University)

Keywords:Coulomb failure stress change

This study examines the occurrence of chain earthquakes in the Chubu and Kinki regions of Japan and evaluates the effects of past seismic activity on major active faults. It is observed that fault movement during a major earthquake can transfer Coulomb stress to surrounding faults, leading to subsequent seismic activity. The results show that the 1891 Nobi earthquake, the 1944 Tonankai earthquake, and the 1946 Nankai earthquake affected the entire area, while other events promoted or retarded the activities of nearby faults. Furthermore, significant stress accumulation during the past 130 years is estimated on 20 active faults, including the Uozu Fault Zone and the Atera Fault Zone. The Sakai-Toge/Kamiya Fault Zone and the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Fault Zone, those are identified as active faults requiring special attention in the future. This study provides valuable information for disaster prevention and predicting future seismic activity.