[S-SS08] 地震活動とその物理

[SSS08-P09] Utilizing 3D seismic data for high-spatial-resolution slip tendency model to assess induced earthquake potential and identify suitable CO2 storage site

*Daulet Bakhtiyar¹、Takeshi Tsuji^2,3,1 (1.Kyushu University、2.The University of Tokyo、3.International Institute for Carbon-Neutral Energy Research (I2CNER))

キーワード：slip tendency, stress inversion, geostatistics, active faults, CO2 injection, CCS projects

We propose a comprehensive methodology for estimating the slip tendency within a target geological setting at a high spatial resolution using three-dimensional (3D) seismic reflection data. A robust framework is developed to assess the potential for fluid-injection-induced earthquakes and identify suitable well locations for CO₂ injection by integrating seismic interpretation techniques with quantitative slip tendency analysis and geostatistical modeling of the slip tendency data. Valuable insights into the validity of the slip tendency model are gained by comparing the modeled slip tendencies with past earthquake hypocenters. Higher slip tendencies are observed near hypocenter locations compared with the entirety of the model grid, thereby suggesting a higher likelihood of induced earthquakes in the areas of high slip tendency. Although there are no CO₂ injection projects in the study area, we present a case study for identifying suitable CO₂ storage sites within a 3D seismic data volume. The findings highlight the potential of this approach in advancing our understanding of fault behavior and seismicity within a given study area, thereby aiding in the assessment of geological hazards and the identification of potential induced-slip-prone areas that may impact carbon capture and storage and other fluid management projects.