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[U15-P114] Earthquake prediction such as 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake
Keywords:Earthquake Prediction, dry slot
Earthquake prediction such as 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake
Takao Saruwatari
1. Introduction
When a typhoon turns into a low-pressure system, or when a low-pressure system develops, a cloud-free area appears and is called a dry slot. It is said that updrafts occur where there are clouds, and downdrafts occur where there are no clouds. From the many large earthquakes that have occurred, we have found that there is a high possibility that an earthquake will occur in this dry slot within a week to seven months. Just because a typhoon or cyclone arrives does not mean that a major earthquake will occur, but if it does not come, it is thought that there will be fewer major earthquakes. There is a possibility that part or all of the dry slot (an area without clouds) in the satellite image will be the epicenter. Earthquakes occur between one week and seven months after the appearance of the dry slot. On average, it's about 3 months late.
2. About the prediction of March 11, 2011 Tohoku Pacific Coast Earthquake M9.0 Date of occurrence: March 11, 2011, 2:46 p.m. CMT solution Reverse fault type with pressure axis in west-northwest-east-southeast direction Fig.1. March 11, 2011 Tohoku Pacific Coast Earthquake M9.0 On the other hand, the low pressure system on December 3, 2010 is thought to be the cause of this earthquake. A low pressure system rapidly developed along the coast of the Sea of Japan and moved northeast, with the central pressure dropping from 21:00 on December 2nd (1010 hPa) to 21:00 on December 3rd (982 hPa). Convective clouds developed near the warm front and near the blockage point, and record-breaking rain fell not only in December but throughout the year in the southern Kanto region and the Pacific Ocean side of the Tohoku region. The daily maximum hourly precipitation is also the highest in recorded history in various places, and the highest for December. The daily maximum 24-hour precipitation and daily precipitation are also observed to be the highest in December. The winds are also strong across the country, with gusts causing damage in various areas. Fig.2. Satellite image at 15:00 on December 3, 2010 The area within the green frame without clouds is the dry slot. The orange tip is the epicenter. The wind direction near the epicenter is west-northwest, which matches the direction of the pressure axis in the earthquake mechanism solution. The dry slot and the epicenter area coincide. Therefore, earthquake prediction is possible. Prediction of many earthquakes is possible as well.
3. Prediction of January 1, 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake M7.6 Fig. 3. Satellite image at 09:00 on November 8, 2023 A dry slot can be seen from the Chugoku region to the Sea of Japan side of Hokuriku in the satellite image taken at 9:00 on November 18, 2023. Then, on January 1, 2024, the Noto Peninsula earthquake of M7.6 occurred.
4. Prediction of April 3, 2024 Taiwan Earthquake M7.7 October 5, 2023 Typhoon No. 14 is turning into a low pressure system, and a dry slot is forming toward the vicinity of Hualien, Taiwan. Six months later, an earthquake of M7.7 occurred with its epicenter near Hualien, Taiwan. Fig.4. Satellite image at 09:00 on October 5, 2023 (from Weathering Person)
5. Conclusion Similar to the Tohoku Pacific Coast Earthquake, it was confirmed that the epicenter area coincided with part of the dry slot after the Noto Peninsula earthquake. It was confirmed that the wind direction was also west-northwest, consistent with the mechanism solution for the Noto Peninsula earthquake. Furthermore, in the case of the Taiwan Earthquake, dry slots were used to identify the location where the earthquake occurred, making it possible to predict the earthquake.
Takao Saruwatari
1. Introduction
When a typhoon turns into a low-pressure system, or when a low-pressure system develops, a cloud-free area appears and is called a dry slot. It is said that updrafts occur where there are clouds, and downdrafts occur where there are no clouds. From the many large earthquakes that have occurred, we have found that there is a high possibility that an earthquake will occur in this dry slot within a week to seven months. Just because a typhoon or cyclone arrives does not mean that a major earthquake will occur, but if it does not come, it is thought that there will be fewer major earthquakes. There is a possibility that part or all of the dry slot (an area without clouds) in the satellite image will be the epicenter. Earthquakes occur between one week and seven months after the appearance of the dry slot. On average, it's about 3 months late.
2. About the prediction of March 11, 2011 Tohoku Pacific Coast Earthquake M9.0 Date of occurrence: March 11, 2011, 2:46 p.m. CMT solution Reverse fault type with pressure axis in west-northwest-east-southeast direction Fig.1. March 11, 2011 Tohoku Pacific Coast Earthquake M9.0 On the other hand, the low pressure system on December 3, 2010 is thought to be the cause of this earthquake. A low pressure system rapidly developed along the coast of the Sea of Japan and moved northeast, with the central pressure dropping from 21:00 on December 2nd (1010 hPa) to 21:00 on December 3rd (982 hPa). Convective clouds developed near the warm front and near the blockage point, and record-breaking rain fell not only in December but throughout the year in the southern Kanto region and the Pacific Ocean side of the Tohoku region. The daily maximum hourly precipitation is also the highest in recorded history in various places, and the highest for December. The daily maximum 24-hour precipitation and daily precipitation are also observed to be the highest in December. The winds are also strong across the country, with gusts causing damage in various areas. Fig.2. Satellite image at 15:00 on December 3, 2010 The area within the green frame without clouds is the dry slot. The orange tip is the epicenter. The wind direction near the epicenter is west-northwest, which matches the direction of the pressure axis in the earthquake mechanism solution. The dry slot and the epicenter area coincide. Therefore, earthquake prediction is possible. Prediction of many earthquakes is possible as well.
3. Prediction of January 1, 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake M7.6 Fig. 3. Satellite image at 09:00 on November 8, 2023 A dry slot can be seen from the Chugoku region to the Sea of Japan side of Hokuriku in the satellite image taken at 9:00 on November 18, 2023. Then, on January 1, 2024, the Noto Peninsula earthquake of M7.6 occurred.
4. Prediction of April 3, 2024 Taiwan Earthquake M7.7 October 5, 2023 Typhoon No. 14 is turning into a low pressure system, and a dry slot is forming toward the vicinity of Hualien, Taiwan. Six months later, an earthquake of M7.7 occurred with its epicenter near Hualien, Taiwan. Fig.4. Satellite image at 09:00 on October 5, 2023 (from Weathering Person)
5. Conclusion Similar to the Tohoku Pacific Coast Earthquake, it was confirmed that the epicenter area coincided with part of the dry slot after the Noto Peninsula earthquake. It was confirmed that the wind direction was also west-northwest, consistent with the mechanism solution for the Noto Peninsula earthquake. Furthermore, in the case of the Taiwan Earthquake, dry slots were used to identify the location where the earthquake occurred, making it possible to predict the earthquake.