[A-AS01] 気象の予測可能性から制御可能性へ

[AAS01-01] The fourth-year overview of Japan’s Moonshot Goal 8 R&D program for controlling and modifying the weather by 2050

*三好 建正¹、中澤 哲夫²、坂上 貴之³、高玉 孝平² (1.理化学研究所、2.科学技術振興機構、3.京都大学)

キーワード：気象制御、ムーンショット研究開発プログラム、気象改変

Prediction and control are the two sides of a coin. Recent improvements and understanding in numerical weather prediction and predictability have led to the point where we can start discussing the control of complex, chaotic weather systems. The Japan’s Moonshot Goal 8 research and development (R&D) program or simply MS8 was launched in 2022 to control extreme weather events such as typhoons and torrential rains and to reduce damage from extreme winds and rains, so that we can realize a society safe from such disasters by 2050. As the important first step toward the next three-decade R&D, MS8 prioritizes numerical simulation experiments to investigate the feasibility of weather control under the constraints of human capability. Thus far, MS8 achieved promising results to reduce a peak rainfall of heavy downpours, while typhoons are well organized, larger-scale phenomena and were found challenging to intervene by human capability. MS8 also accelerates the development of basic science and technology such as advanced weather models, computational models of flood damage, and mathematical approaches to intervention optimization techniques for large dimensional systems. In addition, addressing ethical, legal, and social issues (ELSI) is essential in MS8. This presentation will provide an overview and highlights of the fourth-year progress.