[A-AS01] From Weather Predictability to Controllability

[AAS01-P04] Importance of Tropical Indian Ocean Observations to Central Pacific El Niño Prediction

*Xiaojing Li¹, Youmin Tang², McPhaden J. Michael³ (1.Second Institute of Oceanography, MNR, China, 2.University of Northern British Columbia, Canada, 3.NOAA/PMEL, USA)

Keywords:Targeted Observation, Indian Ocean, Predictability, El Nino

Over the past two decades, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction has become a formidable challenge, primarily attributed to the inherent difficulty in predicting Central Pacific (CP) El Niño. This study unravels the intricate influence of the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) on the landscape of prediction uncertainty associated with CP-El Niño. We identified optimal sites in the tropical IO that significantly reduce prediction uncertainty of CP-El Niño. Validation of the optimal sites is accomplished through observing system simulation experiments, using a fully coupled climate prediction system. The results show a remarkable achievement-a substantial reduction of more than 34% of the root mean squared error in the prediction. In addition to enriching our understanding of the interplay between the tropical Indian Ocean and the CP-El Niño, this study presents a concrete way to improve CP-El Niño prediction and provides practical insights for improving climate predictions associated with ENSO events.