17:15 〜 19:15
[AAS02-P06] Systemic Paradigm Shift in Typhoon Forecasting: Evaluating the Typhoon Ready System for Multi-Hazard Preparedness
キーワード：multi-hazard risk assessment, impact-based forecasting, Typhoon-Ready System, climate crisis, tropical cyclone impacts
Tropical cyclones, including typhoons, represent a significant source of global economic losses due to their multi-faceted impacts, such as flooding, destructive winds, and storm surges. As the climate crisis intensifies, these events are becoming more frequent, severe, and interconnected, necessitating a paradigm shift in hazard forecasting. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2021) underscores that regions will increasingly face compound meteorological hazards rather than isolated events, emphasizing the need for integrated, multi-hazard risk assessment frameworks.
Countries heavily impacted by tropical cyclones—such as Vietnam, Australia, the United States, China, Taiwan, and Japan—have adopted regionalized models to assess the cascading impacts of typhoon-driven phenomena, including heavy rainfall, storm surges, and landslides. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has similarly recommended transitioning from conventional phenomenon-based forecasting to impact-based forecasting to effectively mitigate large-scale socio-economic damage.
Despite the initiation of impact-based forecasting in Korea since 2016, its implementation remains limited due to incomplete technological advancement and insufficient operational integration. To address this gap, we evaluate the implementation potential of the Typhoon-Ready System (TRS), a decision-support meteorological information system designed to enhance impact-based forecasting on the Korean Peninsula. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of TRS through case studies and introduces a multi-hazard meteorological disaster risk index derived from TRS simulations. Our findings highlight the system's capacity to support proactive disaster risk management and inform policy decisions aimed at minimizing the impacts of future typhoon-related hazards.
Countries heavily impacted by tropical cyclones—such as Vietnam, Australia, the United States, China, Taiwan, and Japan—have adopted regionalized models to assess the cascading impacts of typhoon-driven phenomena, including heavy rainfall, storm surges, and landslides. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has similarly recommended transitioning from conventional phenomenon-based forecasting to impact-based forecasting to effectively mitigate large-scale socio-economic damage.
Despite the initiation of impact-based forecasting in Korea since 2016, its implementation remains limited due to incomplete technological advancement and insufficient operational integration. To address this gap, we evaluate the implementation potential of the Typhoon-Ready System (TRS), a decision-support meteorological information system designed to enhance impact-based forecasting on the Korean Peninsula. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of TRS through case studies and introduces a multi-hazard meteorological disaster risk index derived from TRS simulations. Our findings highlight the system's capacity to support proactive disaster risk management and inform policy decisions aimed at minimizing the impacts of future typhoon-related hazards.