[A-AS02] 台風研究の新展開～過去・現在・未来

[AAS02-P08] Spatial Verification Evaluation of Typhoon Rainstorm By Multiple Numerical Models

*Xin Min Wang^1,2,3 (1.Xiamen Meteorological Bureau、2.CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique、3.Henan Meteorological Observatory)

キーワード：Fractional Skill Score, Contiguous Rain Area, Spatial Verification, Landfall Typhoon

Precipitation forecast of three typhoon rainfall processes affecting Henan area at August 2018 from four numerical model, SHANGHAI_HR(sh), GRAPES_MESO(meso), ECMWF_HR(ec), GRAPES_GFS(gfs) were evaluated using FSS(Fractional Skill Score) and CRA(Contiguous Rain Area) methods based on CMA radar-satellite-gauge merged precipitation(CMPA_Hourly V2.1) in this paper. The difference of two methods and the performance of each numerical model were discussed. The results show that: FSS method could better distinguish the performance of different models through quantitive scores compared with traditional TS method, and CRA method could reflect error sources of models more comprehensive. For local heavy rainfall or strong center of large scale precipitation, regional models have advantages compared to global models, however, global models still have some value for small-scale precipitation forecast. For the two precipitation processes of “Yagi” and “Rumbia”, the displacement errors of ec are westward to the observation, and the same characteristics are also reflected in the prediction of “Rumbia” precipitation by meso and gfs. Precipitation scope and intensity were easy to underestimate by gfs model, which would be better forecast by ec. However, there are still some shortcomings of ec model in estimating precipitation extremes. Although regional models, especially sh, could forecast stronger precipitation centers, the scope and strength were easily overestimate. The displacement error for most models is main source of precipitation error, and intensity error and pattern error are roughly equivalent.