17:15 〜 19:15
[AAS02-P09] Assessing generational disparities in cyclone characteristics within the Northwest Pacific Region
キーワード：Cyclone, IBTrACS, TempestExtremes, CMIP6
Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose severe threats to human lives and the economies, particularly in the Northwest Pacific (NP) region. Understanding how their characteristics may evolve under climate change is crucial for climate change adaptation, mitigation strategies, and disaster preparation.
This study examines generational disparities in TC activity using historical (1960–2040) and future (2020–2100) periods. TC observations were acquired from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database for validation purposes. Simulation based TC were generated though a tracking algorithm, TempestExtremes, forced by multiple climate model which participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The tracking algorithm determine TC’ track, and key characteristics (i.e., wind speed).
Within the NP regions, approximately1683 TCs were recorded during 1950–2014, according to IBTrACS data. In contrast, preliminary CMIP6 analysis suggest an average of 2129and 1151 TC occurring during 1950–2014 and 2015–2050. There are, however, large variations across the selected GCMs that must be addressed before analyzing the cyclone characteristics (Fig. 1). Nevertheless, eventual shifts in TC frequency, landfall rates, and intensities underscore the necessity for adaptive infrastructure planning and enhanced risk assessments to build resilience against evolving cyclone hazards.
This study examines generational disparities in TC activity using historical (1960–2040) and future (2020–2100) periods. TC observations were acquired from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database for validation purposes. Simulation based TC were generated though a tracking algorithm, TempestExtremes, forced by multiple climate model which participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The tracking algorithm determine TC’ track, and key characteristics (i.e., wind speed).
Within the NP regions, approximately1683 TCs were recorded during 1950–2014, according to IBTrACS data. In contrast, preliminary CMIP6 analysis suggest an average of 2129and 1151 TC occurring during 1950–2014 and 2015–2050. There are, however, large variations across the selected GCMs that must be addressed before analyzing the cyclone characteristics (Fig. 1). Nevertheless, eventual shifts in TC frequency, landfall rates, and intensities underscore the necessity for adaptive infrastructure planning and enhanced risk assessments to build resilience against evolving cyclone hazards.