[A-AS03] Extreme Events and Mesoscale Weather: Observations and Modeling

[AAS03-03] Large-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics Contributed to the Unprecedented 16 April 2024 Extreme Precipitation Event in Dubai

Muhammad Latif, *Muhammad Usman¹, Abdul Malik, Sateesh Masabathini, Luqman Atique, Fatima Alhammadi¹, Ibrahim Hoteit (1.College of Natural and Health Sciences, Zayed University, UAE)

Keywords:Extreme Precipitation Event, Atmospheric Dynamics, Catastrophic Flooding, Atmospheric Circulation

This study investigates the large-scale atmospheric dynamics associated with an anomalous and extreme precipitation event (EPE) that occurred on 16 April 2024 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, which led to catastrophic flooding and substantial economic losses. Our analyses employ a multi-faceted approach, utilizing two widely-used atmospheric reanalysis datasets: the high-resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), to examine daily precipitation anomalies and atmospheric conditions preceding the EPE. Backward trajectories, simulated using the NOAA HYSPLIT model, are analyzed to trace the origin and transport of air masses contributing to the event. Additionally, spatial patterns and vertical cross-sectional analyses of various atmospheric diagnostic variables are conducted to understand the EPE dynamics. Findings reveal that the juxtaposition of cold air anomalies aloft and warm air anomalies in the mid- and lower-troposphere, accompanied by the intrusion of cold air from the north likely driven by a westerly trough, resulting in baroclinic instability, triggered strong convective activity, leading to the EPE. Strong negative geopotential height anomalies across multiple pressure levels indicate a barotropic vertical structure of the atmosphere. This configuration of height anomalies, combined with pronounced low-level convergence and upper-level divergence (chimney-like effect), promoted enhanced moisture transport from surrounding water bodies (Arabian Gulf, Arabian Sea, and Red Sea) into the region. Moreover, the progressive intensification of cyclonic vorticity further enhances deep convective circulation anomalies, contributing to the development of the EPE. The findings suggest that these atmospheric precursors may enhance the predictability of extreme event occurrences in the region.