[A-AS03] Extreme Events and Mesoscale Weather: Observations and Modeling

[AAS03-P19] Simulation and Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events in the North-West Himalayas

*Saurabh Singh¹, PIYUSH SRIVASTAVA¹, Amit Dhiman¹ (1.Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee)

Keywords:Extreme Rainfall, Weather Research and Forecasting, North-West Himalayas, Mesoscale Dynamics

This research investigates the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF v4.3.3) to accurately simulate heavy to extreme rainfall events driven by severe weather conditions across the complex terrain of the Indian North-Western Himalayan region. High-resolution (1km × 1km) simulations were conducted for the North India flood events of 2013 and 2023, both of which were triggered by extreme meteorological conditions. A detailed comparative analysis, incorporating model outputs, in-situ observational data, and reanalysis products, revealed that the WRF model captured spatiotemporal patterns of key meteorological variables, including temperature, rainfall and geopotential height. Further, the model simulated crucial mesoscale features, such as low-level convergence, upper-level divergence, elevated humidity levels and convective instability, demonstrating its potential to represent the dynamics of the atmosphere conducive to extreme precipitation. The WRF model also simulated the shifts in meridional wind patterns, essential for transporting moisture into the region and subsequent heavy rainfall.