[A-AS05] 高性能計算が拓く気象・気候・環境科学

[AAS05-P06] Wind and Wave Forecasting in the Taiwan Strait: Assessing UFS and GFS Models Through the 2022 Kinmen Shipwreck Case

★Invited Papers

*Ya Ling Li¹、Shih Chiao Tsai¹、Chih Ying Chen²、Cheng Hsien Wu¹、Yu Chen Weng¹ (1.National Defense University、2.RCEC, Academia Sinica)

キーワード：UFS, WRF, CFOSAT, MetOp-B, CYGNSS, 10m wind speed

This study employs the Unified Forecast System (UFS), developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), along with its dynamic core, the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3), to generate a 1-degree resolution (384x190) forecast field for driving regional models, including the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Wave Watch III (WW3) model. The primary objective is to evaluate the performance of the UFS model in forecasting wind and wave conditions around the waters of Taiwan, using the NCEP GFS 0.5-degree resolution data as boundary conditions for comparison. This study takes the supply boat shipwreck incident near Kinmen on November 24, 2022, as a case study to simulate and analyze wind and wave changes using the WRF model with 27 km and 9 km resolutions, and the WW3 model with an 11 km resolution wave forecast.
The results indicate that with UFS boundary conditions, the model can predict the wind speed intensification trend in the Taiwan Strait five days in advance, demonstrating an early warning capability. When the resolution is increased to 9 km, the simulated wind speed more closely matches the wind trend observed by nearshore buoys. Comparison with CFOSAT, MetOp-B, CYGNSS satellite data, and buoy observations shows that UFS outperforms GFS in simulating 10-meter wind speed and significant wave height.