[A-AS09] 応用気象学

[AAS09-04] 気候変動に伴う気温上昇に対する台風による強風ハザードの変化

*竹見 哲也¹、藤原 圭太¹ (1.京都大学防災研究所)

キーワード：台風、気候変動、地球温暖化、気象ハザード、擬似温暖化実験、気象災害

Meteorological hazards from tropical cyclones (TCs) are anticipated to increase under global warming. It is very important to quantitatively assess the impacts of global warming on the changes in TC hazards in order to take appropriate measures of climate change adaptation. This study investigated the changes in the intensity and structure of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (i.e., typhoons), which affected the Japanese islands, and assess the changes in typhoons hazards in response to the temperature rise under climate change by conducting dynamical downscaling experiments with a regional meteorological model and by performing statistical analysis of a large ensemble climate prediction dataset, d4PDF. Disastrous, extreme typhoon cases in Japan during the past few decades, especially those that spawned strong winds, were chosen for the dynamical downscaling experiments. A pseudo-global warming experiment approach was used to quantitatively assess the impacts of global temperature rise on typhoon hazards. The d4PDF dataset including historical, +2K warming, and +4K warming scenarios was used to extract strong wind cases due to typhoons and to examine the characteristics of the strong winds in each region in Japan. It was found that the intensity of the strong wind hazard by typhoons over Japan clearly increases in response to the temperature rise under global warming. The increasing rates found in the dynamical downscaling experiments and the d4PDF data analysis were found to be well correlated linearly with the temperature rise. Such a temperature scaling of the typhoon hazard can be useful in estimating the influences of typhoons under different warming scenarios.