3:45 PM - 4:00 PM
[AAS09-07] Validation of FBJP at Hanamaki Airport for Safe Aircraft Operations
Keywords:Mountain wave, Turbulence, Himawari-9, Meso-Analysis
At Hanamaki Airport, located on the leeward side of the Ou Mountains, turbulence caused by mountain waves sometimes induces full-day flight cancellations every year. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) provides information on the occurrence areas and intensity of mountain waves every six hours through the Domestic SIGWX Prognostic Chart (FBJP, where SIGWX stands for Significant Weather). FBJP is important information for airlines in determining their flight operation plans. However, the accuracy of these forecasts has not been sufficiently validated. Considering the large impact of mountain waves on flights departing or landing Hanamaki Airport, this study validate the accuracy of FBJP's mountain wave predictions at around the airport. Based on the validation, we further aim to enhance the prediction in terms of the frequency, intensity, and the occurrence area. The method to validate mountain wave predictions has not been established. In this study, we evaluated the FBJP by assuming that mountain waves actually occurred when the JMA Meso-Analysis (MA) met the criteria for mountain wave occurrence and wave clouds were detected by the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) aboard the Himawari-9. We found that the FBJP underestimated the mountain wave occurrence frequently with a miss rate of 0.60, suggesting that mountain waves may occur even when they are not predicted by FBJP. We will also discuss the impact of mountain waves on aircraft, the relationship between turbulence data obtained from flight records and meteorological conditions in the presentation.