16:30 〜 16:45
[ACG36-17] Future Changes in the Western Pacific Pattern Under Global Warming
キーワード：地球温暖化、テレコネクション、WPパターン
Several previous studies have suggested that global warming may alter the location and intensity of atmospheric teleconnections. This study examines the effects of global warming on the Western Pacific (WP) pattern, utilizing past and future climate simulations from the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).
The WP pattern appears similar in both historical and future climate simulations. However, the future climate simulations are characterized by increased amplitudes of 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomalies in the southern part of the WP pattern while decreased amplitudes in the northern part, indicating a northward shift of the WP pattern under global warming. Meanwhile, a comparison between CMIP6 and d4PDF shows a non-negligible difference in Z500 anomaly associated with the WP pattern. The increased amplitudes in the southern part of WP are much larger in CMIP6 than in d4PDF. This difference is likely due to changes in tropical forcing between CMIP6 and d4PDF.
In this talk, we will present a more detailed analysis of the factors contributing to future changes in the WP pattern.
The WP pattern appears similar in both historical and future climate simulations. However, the future climate simulations are characterized by increased amplitudes of 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomalies in the southern part of the WP pattern while decreased amplitudes in the northern part, indicating a northward shift of the WP pattern under global warming. Meanwhile, a comparison between CMIP6 and d4PDF shows a non-negligible difference in Z500 anomaly associated with the WP pattern. The increased amplitudes in the southern part of WP are much larger in CMIP6 than in d4PDF. This difference is likely due to changes in tropical forcing between CMIP6 and d4PDF.
In this talk, we will present a more detailed analysis of the factors contributing to future changes in the WP pattern.