[A-CG38] Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales

[ACG38-02] Interannual to multi decadal prediction skill of Summer Monsoon Precipitation

★Invited Papers

*Paul-Arthur Monerie¹, Jon I Robson¹, Cassien Diabe Ndiaye², Cenyao Song³, Andrew G Turner^1,4 (1.University of Reading/National Centre for Atmospheric Science, 2.Previously at LPAO-SF/Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal, 3.Previously at Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, 4. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom)

Keywords:Interannual to Decadal Predictability , CMIP6 Prediction Systems, Summer Monsoon precipitation

Monsoons impact the economy, agriculture, and health of two-thirds of the world's population, making accurate precipitation predictions crucial. We assess the skill of the climate models from the sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows predictive skill for summer monsoon precipitation 1 to 9 years ahead, varying by model, region, and lead-time. Skill is highest in northern Africa but low over East and South Asia, where model performance varies widely. We assess the sources of prediction skill and show that improved predictions in these regions depend on better simulation of externally forced responses and Pacific Ocean temperatures.