[A-CG40] 大気・海洋観測の気候・海洋予測へのインパクト評価

[ACG40-02] The Impact of Observations to ECCC's Global Ocean and Ice Prediction System, GIOPS

★Invited Papers

*Kenneth Andrew Peterson¹、Gregory C Smith¹、Kamel Chikhar²、Dorina Surcel-Colan² (1.RPN-EM, ECCC、2.MSC, ECCC)

キーワード：Ocean Observations, Ocean Data Assimilation, Argo, Altimeter Observations, Observing System Experiments , Ocean Sound Ducts

The Synergistic Observing Network for Ocean Prediction (SynObs) project (https://oceanpredict.org/synobs) seeks to find synergies between ocean observations and ocean prediction through multi-system Observing System Experiments (OSEs). Skillful estimates of sub-surface T/S profiles, which in turn can determine local minimum in sound speed profiles (sound ducts) are important for sub-surface naval operations. Skillful estimates of the location and strength of ocean eddies and surface currents are also important for drift and recovery efforts. Ocean observations play a critical role through data assimilation in providing skillful estimates of these oceanic quantities, but the exact value of the observations, and in particular, which observations are most crucial for a given quantity are unknown.

Within the SynObs context, Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC's) system, the Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS), has performed several observation withholding experiments for sub-surface observations and surface observations. We show the results here for global profile statistics, existence of near surface sound ducts, detection of eddies in the North Atlantic, and near surface 15m currents.

An intercomparison between contributing systems will also be offered for near surface sound ducts.

Time permitting, a first glimpse at a small sample of medium range (15d) coupled forecasts initialized from ocean analysis produced from the observation withholding experiments may be shown.