[A-CG42] Projection and detection of global environmental change

[ACG42-10] Impact of interannual variability in biomass burning aerosol emissions on CMIP6 future scenario experiments with MIROC-ES2L

*Manabu Abe¹ (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

Keywords:global warming, Earth system model, biomass burning aerosol emission

Temporal changes in biomass burning aerosol emissions (BBAEs) prepared as external forcing data by CMIP6, include the interannual variations, which were not considered in CMIP5. In addition, the previous studies of Fasullo et al. (2022), DeRepentigny et al. (2022), and Heyblom et al. (2022), reported that the amplification of interannual variations in the BBAEs since late 1990s resulted in stronger warming mainly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, we investigated a similar effect on the CMIP6 historical experiments with our Earth System Model, MIROC-ES2L (Hajima et al. 2020). However, that was not found in our historical experiments. In this study, we have investigated further the effect of the interannual variations in the BBAEs on CMIP6 future scenario experiments with the MIROC-ES2L.
Interannual variations were not considered in BBAEs for the CMIP6 future scenario experiments. Future scenario experiments (SSP126 and SSP585) including the interannual variations in BBAEs were added in this study. Other forcing data were input in common. Results of the experiments for 10 members with different initial values are shown in this presentation. Future scenario experiments with MIROC-ES2L also do not show significant differences in long-term changes in global and annual mean surface air temperature with and without the interannual variations in BBAEs. However, the warming in the northern high-latitude regions was weaker significantly in both future scenario experiments with the interannual variations in BBAEs rather than those without the interannual variations.
The result suggests that interannual variability in BBAEs may affect the magnitude of projected air temperature changes in some regions. Then, how to project the interannual variability of BBAEs and its impact on future projections is an issue in the future. The importance of introducing a fire model in the Earth system model is likely to be high.