5:15 PM - 7:15 PM
[ACG42-P01] Mathematical Modeling of the Number of Bear Encounters in Response to Temperature and Theoretical Considerations on Regional Characteristics
Keywords:bear
In recent years, the increasing appearances of bears in human settlements have become a
social issue, with a sharp rise observed in 2023, a year marked by extreme weather events. In
this study, we aim to investigate the relationship between bear sightings and weather
conditions, and to create a mathematical model to understand the number of bear
appearances. Specifically, since bears come out to human settlements when their food sources
(e.g., beech, Japanese oak) experience poor harvests, this study focuses on the relationship
between beech trees and bears in the Tohoku region, conducting a theoretical analysis.
Previous research indicated that the air temperature in September of the same year showed
the strongest correlation with bear appearances, while beech tree yields were most strongly
correlated with the air temperature in September of the previous year. Based on this observed
evidence, we develop a mathematical model incorporating bears, beech trees, and air
temperature. When observational data and the predicted values are compared, the interannual
variations of bear sightings generally aligned, showing that the model can predict rough
estimates of bear appearances. Moreover, in Iwate and Yamagata, the abundance of beech
trees can be well explained by temperature fluctuations, and the number of bear sightings can
be accurately predicted using a model with temperature data only. In contrast, in Aomori,
Miyagi, and Akita, where the abundance of beech trees is not well explained by temperature,
a model that incorporates beech tree observation data improves the prediction of bear
appearances.
social issue, with a sharp rise observed in 2023, a year marked by extreme weather events. In
this study, we aim to investigate the relationship between bear sightings and weather
conditions, and to create a mathematical model to understand the number of bear
appearances. Specifically, since bears come out to human settlements when their food sources
(e.g., beech, Japanese oak) experience poor harvests, this study focuses on the relationship
between beech trees and bears in the Tohoku region, conducting a theoretical analysis.
Previous research indicated that the air temperature in September of the same year showed
the strongest correlation with bear appearances, while beech tree yields were most strongly
correlated with the air temperature in September of the previous year. Based on this observed
evidence, we develop a mathematical model incorporating bears, beech trees, and air
temperature. When observational data and the predicted values are compared, the interannual
variations of bear sightings generally aligned, showing that the model can predict rough
estimates of bear appearances. Moreover, in Iwate and Yamagata, the abundance of beech
trees can be well explained by temperature fluctuations, and the number of bear sightings can
be accurately predicted using a model with temperature data only. In contrast, in Aomori,
Miyagi, and Akita, where the abundance of beech trees is not well explained by temperature,
a model that incorporates beech tree observation data improves the prediction of bear
appearances.