[A-CG55] Interdisciplinary climate scenario research: Advancing methods and integrating with emulators

[ACG55-P02] Developing the integrated assessment model SCM4OPT-ECON (version 1.0) to explore optimal cost-benefit paths for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios

*Xuanming Su^1,2, KIYOSHI TAKAHASHI², Tokuta Yokohata², Katsumasa Tanaka^2,3, Shinichiro Fujimori⁴, Jun'ya Takakura², Rintaro Yamaguchi², Weiwei Xiong³ (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2.National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, 3.Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France, 4.Kyoto University)

Keywords:cost-benefit analysis, Integrated Assessment Models, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, marginal abatement cost

Most recent cost-benefit Integrated Assessment Models have mainly focused on reducing CO₂ or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This goal may not adequately account for the uncertainties arising from diverse socioeconomic developments and the potential for mitigating the effects of emissions of individual GHGs, aerosols, and pollutants. We developed an Integrated Assessment Model framework - the Simple Climate Model for Optimization - Economic version 1.0 (SCM4OPT-ECON v1.0), by combining a reduced-complexity climate module with a socioeconomic module. We represented the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios by 1) calculating a new set of marginal abatement cost curves based on the most recent integrated assessment model, 2) creating a new SSP-dependent damage function based on process-based impact simulation results, and 3) extending the evaluation time to the year 2450. The cost-benefit analysis revealed that the SSP scenarios achieved various rates of control for emissions of individual GHGs, aerosols, and pollutants. The result was diverse patterns of optimal temperatures, including maximum temperature achieved and stabilized temperature by the end of the evaluation period. The model simulations showed the importance of distinguishing options for reducing emissions of GHGs based on distinct socioeconomic growth scenarios. We also show an example of a long-term socioeconomic projection spanning several centuries as well as a variety of socioeconomic assumptions for assessing climate change policies with long-term consequences.