[A-HW22] River Channel Morphology, Water Resource Management, and Advanced Techniques

[AHW22-05] Predicting Planform Dynamics and LULC Transitions in a Sub-Himalayan Transboundary River Basin, India

*Anoop Kumar Shukla¹、Manish Pandey²、Satyavati Shukla³ (1.Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India、2.Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India、3.Guilin University of Technology, Guilin, China)

キーワード：Planform dynamics, Riverbank migration, CA-Markov , LULC prediction, Raidak River basin

Rapid population growth and human activities have significantly altered the planform dynamics of river basins worldwide. Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes present significant environmental challenges by affecting hydrological processes and the sustainable management of land and water resources. This study examines planform and LULC changes in the Raidak River basin using the CA-Markov model and geospatial techniques. The Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) was used to delineate land-water boundaries, while riverbank migration, accretion, and erosion were assessed from 1930 to 2024. LULC classification for the period 1973–2024 was conducted using supervised classification methods. The results revealed that river erosion and accretion significantly impacted land area, leading to the rapid growth of built-up areas and croplands, while vegetation, swamps, and water bodies declined. Between 1930 and 2024, the largest area eroded was 114.91 sq. km, with riverbank migration averaging 801.01 meters and 936.89 meters for Raidak I and Raidak II, respectively. From 1973 to 2024, land-use conversions were primarily toward built-up and agricultural areas. Compared to 2024, cropland, sandbar, and built-up areas are expected to increase by 0.14%, 11.55%, and 7.39%, respectively, while dense vegetation, open vegetation, swamps, and water bodies are predicted to shrink by 5.80%, 7.07%, 23.56%, and 4.91%, respectively, by 2034. These insights provide valuable information for regional authorities to develop evidence-based policies for sustainable environmental management. Furthermore, the projected LULC patterns can enhance hybrid models, facilitating a comprehensive assessment of their impact on natural resources.