17:15 〜 19:15
[AHW28-P18] Predicting Planform Dynamics and LULC Transformations in the Tri-City Region: Insights from Chandigarh Tri-City, India
キーワード：Planform dynamics, Geospatial techniques, CA-Markov, LULC prediction, Sustainable Resource Management
Rapid urbanization and human-induced activities have significantly altered planform dynamics and land use land cover (LULC) patterns, posing substantial environmental and resource management challenges. This study investigates historical and future LULC trends in the Tri-City region that includes Chandigarh, Mohali, and Panchkula using the CA-Markov model and geospatial techniques. LULC classification for the period 1973–2024 was conducted using supervised classification techniques. The results revealed that land area was influenced by the rapid expansion of built-up areas and croplands, alongside a decline in vegetation and water bodies. Between 1973 and 2024, various land use categories were primarily converted into built-up and agricultural areas. By 2034, compared to 2024, cropland and built-up areas are projected to increase by 0.14% and 12.39%, respectively, while vegetation and water bodies are expected to shrink by 10.56% and 4.91%, respectively. The expansion of built-up areas and croplands at the expense of vegetation and water bodies has resulted in significant ecological stress. The decline in green cover, as projected at 10.56% by 2034, threatens biodiversity, disrupts natural habitats, and reduces carbon sequestration capacity. Additionally, the loss of water bodies (4.91% decline) exacerbates water scarcity issues, affecting groundwater recharge and increasing the risk of droughts. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners to develop sustainable land and water resource management strategies. Additionally, integrating predictive LULC models with hybrid approaches can enhance long-term environmental planning and mitigation efforts.