[A-OS14] Continental Oceanic Mutual Interaction - Planetary Scale Material Circulation

[AOS14-09] Antarctic sea ice link to malaria cases in South Africa

*Swadhin Behera¹, Hanae Saito², Yushi Morioka¹ (1.Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Yokohama 236-0001, 2.Department of Ocean, Technology, Policy and Environment, Frontier School of Science, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa)

Keywords:Malaria , Antarctic , Sea ice

Malaria remains a major public health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for over 90% of global malaria cases and deaths, with an estimated 234 million cases and 593,000 deaths reported in 2022. Previous studies have established strong links between malaria incidence and tropical climate variability, particularly through the influence of temperature, rainfall, and humidity driven by phenomena such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, this study identifies a novel relationship between malaria incidence in South Africa and climate variations in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, specifically the Weddell Sea.

Our analysis reveals that a decrease in sea ice concentration (SIC) and an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Weddell Sea during December are positively correlated with a rise in malaria cases in South Africa. Geopotential height analyses indicate that atmospheric wave patterns may drive circulation anomalies around southern Africa, potentially influencing malaria transmission dynamics. Additionally, SIC and SST variations in both December and January appear to have a common influence on malaria incidence in April and September of the following year.

Future research should focus on acquiring long-term malaria incidence data, calculating wave activity flux to assess atmospheric wave energy transport, and conducting model experiments to quantitatively evaluate the climatic impacts on remote regions.