10:15 AM - 10:30 AM
[AOS15-06] Response analysis of Pacific chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) to environmental variation and population vulnerability analysis
Keywords:chub mackerel, Lagrangian particle tracking model, Kuroshio large meandering, Northwest Pacific, movement ecology, population dynamics
The response mechanisms of marine ecosystems to climate change remain largely enigmatic. Many biological resources are highly susceptible to environmental variations, yet their ecological processes are still unclear due to the lack of sufficient spatiotemporal observational data. In this study, we developed a growth-migration-population dynamics model to investigate how various environmental factors influence the population dynamics of the chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. Based on this model, we analyzed the sensitivity of chub mackerel population fluctuations to environmental changes and assessed its vulnerability under different climate scenarios.
Our study primarily focused on three key environmental factors: food availability, represented by chlorophyll concentration; sea surface temperature (SST); and anomalies in the sea surface current field, characterized by Kuroshio large meander events. Additionally, we conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the model to evaluate the independent impact of each environmental factor on the population dynamics of chub mackerel.
The results revealed that the velocity field is a key factor controlling the trajectory of chub mackerel during their early life stage to change the ambient environment they experience, which has a far-reaching implication in individual growth, stock of resources, and landings in the following years. Some year classes were weakened due to such kinds of passive transportation induced changes of environmental condition.
The findings of our study contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms driving population fluctuations in marine fish species under climate change and provide valuable insights for sustainable fisheries management and conservation strategies. By quantifying the relationships between environmental variability and population dynamics, our research offers a scientific basis for predicting future population trends and assessing the resilience of chub mackerel under changing oceanic conditions.
Our study primarily focused on three key environmental factors: food availability, represented by chlorophyll concentration; sea surface temperature (SST); and anomalies in the sea surface current field, characterized by Kuroshio large meander events. Additionally, we conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the model to evaluate the independent impact of each environmental factor on the population dynamics of chub mackerel.
The results revealed that the velocity field is a key factor controlling the trajectory of chub mackerel during their early life stage to change the ambient environment they experience, which has a far-reaching implication in individual growth, stock of resources, and landings in the following years. Some year classes were weakened due to such kinds of passive transportation induced changes of environmental condition.
The findings of our study contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms driving population fluctuations in marine fish species under climate change and provide valuable insights for sustainable fisheries management and conservation strategies. By quantifying the relationships between environmental variability and population dynamics, our research offers a scientific basis for predicting future population trends and assessing the resilience of chub mackerel under changing oceanic conditions.