[H-CG24] Adaptation to climate change and its social implementation

[HCG24-02] Hydrological Response to Climate Change-Induced Extreme Rainfall in Pakistan

*Muhammad Umar Nadeem¹, KOJI DAIRAKU¹ (1.Department of Engineering Mechanics and Energy, Graduate School of Science and Technology, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8577, Japan)

Keywords:Climate change adaptation, Hydrological response, Extreme precipitation, New Precipitation Product, Flood risk management

Extreme precipitation has become a significant climate risk in Pakistan, as demonstrated by the devastating floods of 2022. This study investigates the hydrological response to extreme precipitation events, utilizing a novel precipitation product (NPP) that merges PERSIANN-CCS satellite and ground-based data. The analysis covers data from 2010 to 2021 as a pre-flood reference and 2022 as the flood event year. Eleven expert-recommended indices, including total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), maximum daily precipitation (RX1DAY), and consecutive dry days (CDD), were applied to examine spatiotemporal rainfall trends.
The results show a marked increase in intense rainfall and prolonged dry spells, with the NPP dataset capturing sharp precipitation spikes linked to severe flooding. Other satellite products significantly underestimated these events. The SWAT model, calibrated and validated to incorporate uncertainties under extreme conditions, enhances future hydrological projections and flood risk assessment.
This research advances the understanding of how climate change influences extreme precipitation and hydrological variability. It offers critical data and modeling insights to enhance flood risk assessment and adaptation planning, supporting the development of resilience strategies in climate-vulnerable regions.