17:15 〜 19:15
[HCG24-P01] Parametric Multivariate Index for Monitoring Drought in the upper Blue Nile River basin, Ethiopia
キーワード：Drought, multivariate index, copula, upper Blue Nile River basin
Drought is one of the hydroclimatic hazards and has devastating effects on the environment, water resources, and society worldwide. Drought indices based on single variables are primarily used for monitoring specific types of drought and do not reflect the multi-scale characteristics of drought events. Therefore, this study aimed to monitor drought using the multivariate standardized drought index, which combines precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture based on copula models. Precipitation (P) and soil moisture data were obtained from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS, version 2) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM version 4.1a), respectively. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) was estimated using the Hargreaves equation, and climate water balance (P-PET) was utilized to demonstrate meteorological drought. The soil moisture was used to monitor agricultural drought. The multivariate standardized drought index integrates meteorological and agricultural drought to characterize the drought in the study area. The spatiotemporal changes of drought from 1981 to 2014 in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, were analyzed. Results revealed that the multivariate standardized drought indices showed the severity of drought compared to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) both spatially and temporally. The developed parametric multivariate index is significant for monitoring drought in the upper Blue Nile River basin Ethiopia.