17:15 〜 19:15
[HCG24-P02] Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture in California
キーワード：気候変動、ブドウ栽培、自然災害、全球気候モデル
Numerous studies in Europe and North America have investigated the relationship between meteorological conditions and wine grape quality, with efforts to estimate the distribution of suitable viticulture areas in renowned wine regions. However, climate change is expected to alter traditional viticulture regions. Additionally, changes in the intensity and frequency of natural disasters, such as landslides, floods, and wildfires, have been observed, highlighting the need for a comprehensive assessment of both the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and its influence on natural disasters. This study focuses on California, USA, to analyze the relationship between meteorological conditions and suitable viticulture areas, estimate viticulture suitability, and project future changes under climate change. Future climate projections were conducted using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for both the near future and the late 21st century. We predicted regional grape cultivation suitability using MaxEnt, a multivariate model for estimating grape suitability. We found that variations in annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality largely determine the viticulture suitability in California under current climate conditions. Viticulture suitable areas under current climate were identified in coastal regions. In contrast, under future climate scenarios, higher suitability is projected for inland areas.