[H-CG24] 気候変動への適応とその社会実装

[HCG24-P05] Rainfall Erosivity in a Changing Climate: Historical Trends and Future Projections from CMIP6

*Hailemariam Mengistu Doko¹、Dairaku Koji¹、Ermias Brhane¹ (1.University of Tsukuba)

キーワード：CMIP6, climate change, Rainfall erossivity

Rainfall erosivity significantly impacts soil erosion mechanisms, affecting land degradation and sediment movement in many ecosystems. This study evaluates historical and prospective changes of the Rainfall Erosivity Factor (R-factor) utilizing ensemble simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Historical trends are examined to assess the models' proficiency in representing observed precipitation extremes, while future projections under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) offer insights into prospective alterations in erosivity patterns. Findings demonstrate a substantial rise in rainfall erosivity across multiple regions, especially under elevated emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), indicating increased hazards of soil erosion and land degradation in susceptible locations. The results emphasize the necessity of including high-resolution climate projections into erosion modeling frameworks to improve predictive accuracy and guide adaptive land management options. Results demonstrate substantial increases in rainfall erosivity (R factor) and mean annual soil loss for future periods (2041–2100), with SSP5-8.5 exhibiting the most severe consequences due to enhanced precipitation.