17:15 〜 19:15
[HDS07-P15] Statistical Analysis of the Relationship Between Landslides and Precipitation in Hokkaido and Future Changes Under Climate Change
キーワード：地すべり災害、極端降雨、気候変動影響
Landslides are closely linked to precipitation patterns, particularly extreme rainfall events. With climate change, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall are increasing, raising concerns about future landslide risks. In this study, the relationship between landslides and precipitation in Hokkaido since 1988 was statistically analyzed using past disaster records ("Actual Conditions of Landslide Disasters") and meteorological data from AMeDAS and radar-based precipitation measurements. Furthermore, future changes in precipitation in mountainous areas were estimated based on climate model projections.
The results showed a positive correlation between the number of landslide occurrences and several precipitation indices, such as annual cumulative precipitation and the frequency of heavy rainfall events. Large-scale meteorological disturbances, including typhoons, cold fronts, and linear precipitation systems, contributed to increased rainfall. Although climate change is expected to significantly increase heavy rainfall events associated with linear rainbands, the projected frequency of large-scale disturbances varies depending on the indicator used. Furthermore, landslides in the region were found to occur not only during the summer rainy season but also during the spring snowmelt period, highlighting the need for improved forecasting of the timing and volume of snowmelt.
The results showed a positive correlation between the number of landslide occurrences and several precipitation indices, such as annual cumulative precipitation and the frequency of heavy rainfall events. Large-scale meteorological disturbances, including typhoons, cold fronts, and linear precipitation systems, contributed to increased rainfall. Although climate change is expected to significantly increase heavy rainfall events associated with linear rainbands, the projected frequency of large-scale disturbances varies depending on the indicator used. Furthermore, landslides in the region were found to occur not only during the summer rainy season but also during the spring snowmelt period, highlighting the need for improved forecasting of the timing and volume of snowmelt.