[H-DS08] Using Population Data to Better Understand Current and Future Risk: Challenges and Opportunities

[HDS08-P01] Population Aging Exacerbates Heat Stroke-Related Ambulance Transportations in Japan

*郭 強¹、Madaniyazi Lina²、野村 周平³、Chen Kai⁴、橋爪 真弘¹ (1.東京大学、2.長崎大学、3.慶應義塾大学、4.イェール大学)

キーワード：熱中症、熱ストレス、人口の高齢化、気候変動、日本

Rapid aging significantly increases Japan’s population vulnerability to severe heat stress, yet the precise impact on heat stroke-related morbidity remains unclear. This study integrates multiple datasets and develops predictive models for daily heat stroke-related emergency ambulance dispatches (HT-EADs) among younger and older populations in Japan for 2010-2019. By adjusting the proportion of older adults and incorporating pseudo climate warming, we assessed how aging and warming could amplify total HT-EADs. Compared to the simulation using demographic conditions of 1995, recent aging trends have led to a 15% increase in total HT-EADs in Japan during 2010-2019, an effect equivalent to a 0.3℃ warming. This increase could rise to 30% under a super-aging demographic scenario by 2045, surpassing the impact of a 0.5℃ warming. Our findings emphasize that aging has comparable negative impacts on heat stroke morbidity as climate change, highlighting the urgent need of enhanced protections for older residents during hot summers.