[H-DS08] Using Population Data to Better Understand Current and Future Risk: Challenges and Opportunities

[HDS08-P02] Development of Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Research in Japan

★Invited Papers

*吉川 沙耶花¹、今村 航平²、高橋 潔³、松橋 啓介³、三村 信男² (1.長崎大学、2.茨城大学、3.国立環境研究所)

キーワード：社会経済シナリオ、土地利用、空き家、気候変動、将来予測

Possible future scenarios of both climate and socioeconomic changes are commonly used to assess the impacts and adaptation measures of climate change. This research provides an overview of the development of the common socioeconomic scenarios in Japan. The data prepared for the common socioeconomic scenario of impacts and adaptation measures of climate change in Japan are population, number of households, and land use (building site areas by use). The future changes by 2100 were estimated by classifying the building site areas into industrial, commercial, residential, and other uses. The land area for residential building site areas were estimated by determining which buildings will be utilized and which not, based on vacant house projections in Japan. The actual impacts of climate change occur alongside social changes in the population, the number of households, and land use, including vacant houses. These data are important in many fields, such as natural disasters, biodiversity conservation, and CO2 emission reduction, to formulate climate change impacts and adaptation strategies.