9:45 AM - 10:00 AM
[HDS09-04] Analysis of Behavior Tsunami Evacuation in Non-Ordinary Spaces Using GNSS
Keywords:GNSS, GIS, Tsunami Evacuation, Hokkaido
1. Introduction
In response to the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Japanese government reexamined its existing tsunami disaster prevention measures and enacted the Act on the Creation of Tsunami Disaster Prevention Communities in December 2011. This legislation envisions two levels of tsunami events and emphasizes the necessity of implementing a “multiple layers of defense” approach that enhances both hard and soft countermeasures for disaster mitigation.
Currently, in addition to the tsunami hazards associated with a potential Nankai Trough mega-earthquake, significant concern is directed toward a giant tsunami generated by trench-type earthquakes along the Japan Trench and Kuril Trench, which are predicted to affect the coastal regions of Hokkaido and Tohoku. In a damage simulation conducted in Hokkaido in 2022, the worst-case scenario estimated up to 149,000 fatalities. However, early evacuation is estimated to reduce the impact by 72.5%, underscoring the critical importance of rapid movement away from inundation zones in disaster prevention.
2. Purpose and Study Area
This study aims to conduct a tsunami evacuation experiment in a non-ordinary environment by utilizing GNSS and evacuation drill systems. The objective is to visualize and analyze evacuation trajectories and video recordings in conjunction with disaster-related geospatial information. The study areas are Date City and Niikappu Town in Hokkaido, where a large population live along the coast. Furthermore, these regions are significant tourist destinations, with Date City recording 1,555,000 visitor entries and Niikappu Town 300,000 visitor entries in fiscal year 2022.
3. Experiment Overview
The experiment involved forming four groups of students, each consisting of four to five members, who began their group evacuation simultaneously at the start of the experiment. In the experiment conducted in Date City in 2023, each group initiated evacuation from a different starting point. In contrast, the experiment in Niikappu Town conducted in 2024 employed a common starting point for all groups.
4. Results
In both experiments, the groups initially relied on visual observation to assess their surroundings. Subsequently, differences emerged in the processes by which groups determined their evacuation destinations. Several groups utilized smartphones to access geospatial information—such as Google Maps and hazard maps—to select their evacuation sites, while others relied on information gleaned from the surrounding environment and on prior knowledge and experience. These varying decision-making processes resulted in different evacuation outcomes. Some groups experienced delays due to preconceived notions, leading to their failure to reach designated safe zones within the allotted time, whereas other groups found themselves at risk of inundation depending on the circumstances.
To mitigate such delays in non-ordinary evacuation scenarios, the enhancement of disaster literacy is deemed essential. Future efforts should focus on implementing measures and developing content aimed at improving disaster literacy.
Note: This study is part of the results of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's "Earthquake and Volcano Observation Research Project for Contributing to Disaster Mitigation (Phase 2 and 3)".
In response to the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Japanese government reexamined its existing tsunami disaster prevention measures and enacted the Act on the Creation of Tsunami Disaster Prevention Communities in December 2011. This legislation envisions two levels of tsunami events and emphasizes the necessity of implementing a “multiple layers of defense” approach that enhances both hard and soft countermeasures for disaster mitigation.
Currently, in addition to the tsunami hazards associated with a potential Nankai Trough mega-earthquake, significant concern is directed toward a giant tsunami generated by trench-type earthquakes along the Japan Trench and Kuril Trench, which are predicted to affect the coastal regions of Hokkaido and Tohoku. In a damage simulation conducted in Hokkaido in 2022, the worst-case scenario estimated up to 149,000 fatalities. However, early evacuation is estimated to reduce the impact by 72.5%, underscoring the critical importance of rapid movement away from inundation zones in disaster prevention.
2. Purpose and Study Area
This study aims to conduct a tsunami evacuation experiment in a non-ordinary environment by utilizing GNSS and evacuation drill systems. The objective is to visualize and analyze evacuation trajectories and video recordings in conjunction with disaster-related geospatial information. The study areas are Date City and Niikappu Town in Hokkaido, where a large population live along the coast. Furthermore, these regions are significant tourist destinations, with Date City recording 1,555,000 visitor entries and Niikappu Town 300,000 visitor entries in fiscal year 2022.
3. Experiment Overview
The experiment involved forming four groups of students, each consisting of four to five members, who began their group evacuation simultaneously at the start of the experiment. In the experiment conducted in Date City in 2023, each group initiated evacuation from a different starting point. In contrast, the experiment in Niikappu Town conducted in 2024 employed a common starting point for all groups.
4. Results
In both experiments, the groups initially relied on visual observation to assess their surroundings. Subsequently, differences emerged in the processes by which groups determined their evacuation destinations. Several groups utilized smartphones to access geospatial information—such as Google Maps and hazard maps—to select their evacuation sites, while others relied on information gleaned from the surrounding environment and on prior knowledge and experience. These varying decision-making processes resulted in different evacuation outcomes. Some groups experienced delays due to preconceived notions, leading to their failure to reach designated safe zones within the allotted time, whereas other groups found themselves at risk of inundation depending on the circumstances.
To mitigate such delays in non-ordinary evacuation scenarios, the enhancement of disaster literacy is deemed essential. Future efforts should focus on implementing measures and developing content aimed at improving disaster literacy.
Note: This study is part of the results of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's "Earthquake and Volcano Observation Research Project for Contributing to Disaster Mitigation (Phase 2 and 3)".