5:15 PM - 7:15 PM
[HDS09-P01] Survey and Analysis of Actual Evacuation Situation during 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake
-A Case Study of Toyama Prefecture-
Keywords:Evacuation, 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake, Location Data, Toyama Prefecture
Analysis of location data as quantitative data confirmed not only traffic congestion, but also that people were congregating in nearby areas in coastal areas. In addition, it was confirmed that the evacuation peaked at 2-3 hours, after which the residents stopped evacuating and dispersed to other areas. This survey analysis inferred that residents who evacuated did not wait until 9 hours before the tsunami warning was lifted before taking action to stop evacuating.
Based on the results of this analysis of location data, qualitative data analysis using a web-based questionnaire survey was conducted to investigate and analyze three decision points: “decision to start evacuation,” “decision to continue evacuation,” and “decision to lift evacuation. In the questionnaire survey, a screening survey was conducted in advance, and respondents were required to have lived in Toyama at the time of the Noto Peninsula earthquake and to have known about the Noto Peninsula earthquake. Of the 2,000 cases collected, 1,522 were applicable. This survey was conducted on these 1,522 respondents. The survey received 1,049 valid responses (68.9%) over a two-week period from November 21 to December 4, 2024. The questions in this survey consisted of the three decision points mentioned above plus basic attribute items, for a total of 29 questions.
First, the distance from the sea affected the decision to initiate evacuation, and the further from the sea, the lower the awareness of initiating evacuation. This result indicates that evacuation from the tsunami was more common than evacuation from the shaking. The decision to continue evacuation depended on the location of the emergency evacuation. While people would evacuate for a longer period of time if they were in a stable place, they were less likely to stay in a temporary evacuation in the neighborhood. In the decision to lift evacuation, it was revealed that the decision was “induced by the behavior of others” and was based on what they “judged to be safe” without evidence. This is a significant manifestation of concordance bias and normality bias. In addition, physical and physiological conditions such as “fatigue” and “eating and toileting” led to the decision to lift the evacuation.
These survey analyses suggest that prolonged “risk” is limiting and that a system to support physical and physiological conditions in addition to information is needed. In our country, where there is concern that huge disasters may occur in the future, some areas will require a long period of time before the warning is lifted. We believe that the results of this research will help to ensure that lives are spared in these areas.
Based on the results of this analysis of location data, qualitative data analysis using a web-based questionnaire survey was conducted to investigate and analyze three decision points: “decision to start evacuation,” “decision to continue evacuation,” and “decision to lift evacuation. In the questionnaire survey, a screening survey was conducted in advance, and respondents were required to have lived in Toyama at the time of the Noto Peninsula earthquake and to have known about the Noto Peninsula earthquake. Of the 2,000 cases collected, 1,522 were applicable. This survey was conducted on these 1,522 respondents. The survey received 1,049 valid responses (68.9%) over a two-week period from November 21 to December 4, 2024. The questions in this survey consisted of the three decision points mentioned above plus basic attribute items, for a total of 29 questions.
First, the distance from the sea affected the decision to initiate evacuation, and the further from the sea, the lower the awareness of initiating evacuation. This result indicates that evacuation from the tsunami was more common than evacuation from the shaking. The decision to continue evacuation depended on the location of the emergency evacuation. While people would evacuate for a longer period of time if they were in a stable place, they were less likely to stay in a temporary evacuation in the neighborhood. In the decision to lift evacuation, it was revealed that the decision was “induced by the behavior of others” and was based on what they “judged to be safe” without evidence. This is a significant manifestation of concordance bias and normality bias. In addition, physical and physiological conditions such as “fatigue” and “eating and toileting” led to the decision to lift the evacuation.
These survey analyses suggest that prolonged “risk” is limiting and that a system to support physical and physiological conditions in addition to information is needed. In our country, where there is concern that huge disasters may occur in the future, some areas will require a long period of time before the warning is lifted. We believe that the results of this research will help to ensure that lives are spared in these areas.