[H-GG01] Geosciences at the intersection between disasters and agriculture

[HGG01-P01] Sowing Resilience: Quantifying the Effectiveness of American Crops in Mitigating Malthusian Catastrophes during Climatic Extremes in Historical China

*Harry F Lee^1,2 (1.Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2.Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

Keywords:Agriculture, Social resilience, Climate change, Sustainability, China, History

Previous research on the human-environment nexus has predominantly focused on the detrimental impacts of climate change on social stability, economic growth, and the collapse of civilizations, often overlooking the resilience mechanisms that human societies employ to cope with adverse environmental conditions. Agricultural development, as a crucial component of social resilience, has played a pivotal role in enabling societies to absorb substantial climate-induced subsistence pressures. Building upon this perspective, our study systematically examines how the introduction of American crops mitigated the relationship between climatic extremes – specifically floods and droughts – and Malthusian catastrophes such as famines and wars during the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China. By meticulously collecting and analyzing records of four high-yield American crops – maize, peanuts, sweet potatoes, and potatoes – from 3,071 local chronicles across 236 prefectures, we assess how these crops contributed to social resilience during climate extremes. Our statistical results indicate that the introduction of these American crops had significant mitigating effects on Malthusian catastrophes during climate extremes, with varying impacts among the different crops. Specifically, maize and peanuts were particularly effective in reducing wars during floods, while peanuts, sweet potatoes, and potatoes tended to alleviate famines during droughts. Comparative analysis across China’s agrarian regions reveals that these catastrophe-mitigating effects were more pronounced in the south-western mountainous zone, and that spatial spillover effects were more significant in the central-eastern rice cultivation zone. These findings underscore the importance of agricultural innovation in enhancing social resilience to climatic extremes. By highlighting the differential catastrophe-mitigating effects of specific crops across regions, our study offers valuable insights into the adaptive capacity of human societies in the face of climate variability, contributing to a more nuanced understanding of the human-environment nexus.