[H-TT15] Geographic Information Systems and Cartography

[HTT15-07] Future of Urban Wetlands: A Comparative Study of Niigata, Japan and Colombo, Sri Lanka

*Darshana Athukorala¹、Yuji Murayama¹、Takehiro Morimoto ¹ (1.Institute of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba 305-8572, Japan)

キーワード：Urban Wetlands, Spatial Modeling, Scenarios, Urban Planning, Ecosystem Services

Urban wetlands provide essential ecosystem services such as flood control, urban cooling, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity support, yet they face significant threats from urbanization and climate change. This study examines wetland ecosystem services (WESs) in Niigata, Japan, and Colombo, Sri Lanka, which represent contrasting climatic, socio-economic, and urbanization contexts in the Global North and South, respectively. Using Earth observation data and advanced spatial modeling, the study aims to (i) quantify urbanization-driven wetland changes from 2000 to 2020, (ii) simulate future land use/cover (LUC) changes for 2030 and 2050 using a spatially explicit machine learning framework, and (iii) assess the impacts of these changes on urban WESs. Niigata’s urban-wetland interactions show a dynamic interface, which is challenged by agricultural land transitions and urban sprawl. Colombo reveals wetland encroachment due to rapid urbanization and socio-economic pressures between 2000 and 2020. Analyzing a Business-as-Usual (BAU) and four alternative land management scenarios, the study identifies key drivers and processes influencing wetland sustainability by 2030 and 2050. The findings emphasize the need for wetland conservation strategies in each city, indicating their role in enhancing resilience to climate change and sustainable urban planning. By synthesizing insights from Niigata and Colombo, this study highlights the global importance of integrating nature-based solutions to improve ecological and societal well-being in rapidly urbanizing environments.