[H-TT15] Geographic Information Systems and Cartography

[HTT15-P05] Forecasting Future Urban Heat Island Intensity and Spatial Distribution Using Landscape Patterns: A case study in Hangzhou

*Ruci Wang^1,3, HAO HOU², YUJI MURAYAMA³ (1.Center for Environmrntal Remote Sensing, Chiba University, 2.Hangzhou Normal University, 3.University of Tsukuba)

Keywords:Future simulation, Land surface temperature, Landscape pattern, Surface urban heat island intensity

With rapid urbanization, global land use and land cover have undergone significant transformations, exacerbating environmental challenges in urban areas. Among these, the urban heat island (UHI) effect has drawn considerable attention due to its amplifying impact on climate change and its adverse effects on urban livability and sustainability. In this study, we projected future surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) and distribution patterns using a random forest model based on predicted landscape configurations. The findings indicate that by 2030, the built-up area is expected to expand to 3740.67 km², while non-forest green space (GS2) will shrink by approximately 1130.96 km². As urban expansion progresses, regions experiencing SUHII above 5°C are projected to increase significantly, forming a more concentrated spatial pattern, whereas areas with SUHII below -2.5°C will diminish. Furthermore, our results suggest that scattered built-up areas and GS1, along with concentrated GS2, play a crucial role in mitigating SUHII. These insights provide valuable guidance for policymakers and urban planners in formulating effective strategies for sustainable urban development.