17:15 〜 19:15
[HTT15-P06] Exploring Future Land Use and Cover in Morocco through System Dynamics and Spatial Analysis
キーワード：System Dynamics Modeling, Land Demand Estimation, Drought and Climate Variability, Urbanization and Agriculture, Data Scarcity, Morocco
Morocco, a North African nation grappling with prolonged droughts and intensifying water scarcity over recent decades, faces mounting challenges in managing its land resources sustainably. These pressures, compounded by rapid population growth, urbanization, and limited data availability, create significant uncertainties for future land use planning. To address these issues, we propose a system dynamics (SD) model to estimate land demands under various socioeconomic and climatic scenarios. The SD framework integrates four interconnected subsystems—population, economy, climate, and land use/cover—to simulate the complex drivers of land use change in a country increasingly affected by resource constraints. Our study focuses on quantifying land requirements for urban development and agriculture, two critical sectors impacted by recurring droughts and competing demands. Results indicate that intensified climate pressures will likely exacerbate land competition, with urban expansion encroaching on agricultural areas and threatening food security. Sustainable development scenarios, however, demonstrate the potential for mitigating these challenges through adaptive policies and efficient land use strategies. By addressing data scarcity and providing actionable insights, this research aims to support policymakers in balancing development goals with environmental sustainability in Morocco’s drought-prone context. This work advances land use modeling in data-limited regions while offering replicable solutions for similar nations striving to build resilience against climate variability.