17:15 〜 19:15
[L03-P01] A new modeling framework for integrating multiple problems at multiple spatial scales to achieve simultaneous solutions to global environmental issues
キーワード：生物多様性、気候変動、同時解決、モデリングフレームワーク
Climate change and biodiversity loss are among the most pressing global environmental challenges. However, their interactions with other environmental issues—varying in type and magnitude across regions—are often inadequately considered before policies and mitigation measures are planned, decided, or implemented. Achieving the simultaneous resolution of multiple environmental challenges without externalizing negative impacts (e.g., shifting burdens to other regions) requires enhanced trans-scale integration of top-down management and bottom-up action planning, leveraging the strengths of both approaches.
At the global level, targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and associated timelines are typically determined first, with subsequent allocations to individual countries. However, this process often neglects the ripple effects of GHG reduction measures on ecosystems and human well-being at the national and local scales. Conversely, at the national level, policymakers generally possess a deep understanding of societal constraints, demands, and capacities for implementing such measures. Yet, causal interactions among environmental issues and their transboundary effects are rarely prioritized.
To address this gap, we propose a Double PDCA-Cycle Framework that bridges bottom-up local action plans with top-down global evaluations and recommendations. This framework consists of two iterative cycles:
Pre-implementation cycle: Simulation-based assessments to evaluate the external and global impacts of proposed local action plans. Post-implementation cycle: Iterative modifications based on observed outcomes and feedback.
A set of dynamic models incorporating a simplified global system and two nations was analyzed under three different assumptions:
Top-down approach: A global-scale, goal-oriented strategy. Bottom-up approach: A national-scale, goal-oriented strategy. Double PDCA-cycle approach: An integrated strategy combining both perspectives.
Preliminary results from these comparative analyses highlight the advantages of the Double PDCA-Cycle Framework, including:
The ability for each country to design locally tailored action plans aligned with its unique natural and cultural conditions. The use of appropriate models to assess the globally integrated impacts of national action plans. The effective utilization of existing observation and assessment mechanisms.
This framework offers a structured approach to aligning local and global environmental strategies, ensuring more holistic and effective policy outcomes.
At the global level, targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and associated timelines are typically determined first, with subsequent allocations to individual countries. However, this process often neglects the ripple effects of GHG reduction measures on ecosystems and human well-being at the national and local scales. Conversely, at the national level, policymakers generally possess a deep understanding of societal constraints, demands, and capacities for implementing such measures. Yet, causal interactions among environmental issues and their transboundary effects are rarely prioritized.
To address this gap, we propose a Double PDCA-Cycle Framework that bridges bottom-up local action plans with top-down global evaluations and recommendations. This framework consists of two iterative cycles:
Pre-implementation cycle: Simulation-based assessments to evaluate the external and global impacts of proposed local action plans. Post-implementation cycle: Iterative modifications based on observed outcomes and feedback.
A set of dynamic models incorporating a simplified global system and two nations was analyzed under three different assumptions:
Top-down approach: A global-scale, goal-oriented strategy. Bottom-up approach: A national-scale, goal-oriented strategy. Double PDCA-cycle approach: An integrated strategy combining both perspectives.
Preliminary results from these comparative analyses highlight the advantages of the Double PDCA-Cycle Framework, including:
The ability for each country to design locally tailored action plans aligned with its unique natural and cultural conditions. The use of appropriate models to assess the globally integrated impacts of national action plans. The effective utilization of existing observation and assessment mechanisms.
This framework offers a structured approach to aligning local and global environmental strategies, ensuring more holistic and effective policy outcomes.