[M-AG32] Renewable Energy

[MAG32-P04] Analyzing Projected Changes to Wind Energy Resources in Japan Under Four Climate Change Scenarios

*Jacqueline Muthoni Mbugua¹、Yusuke Hiraga¹ (1.Tohoku University)

キーワード：Wind speed forecasting, Wind power forecasting, Forecasting methods, Climate Change

Wind power is widely recognized as a cornerstone of the renewable energy sector, thanks to its abundant availability. However, effectively harnessing this resource for strategic planning, investment decisions, grid management, and policy formulation is dependent on accurate long-term forecasting, spanning multiple years. To advance both research and practical applications, it is important to examine and refine forecasting techniques tailored to seasonal, and annual timescales, as each region captures distinct wind patterns and associated uncertainties. In Japan, wind energy plays a crucial role in meeting growing electricity demands and supporting national sustainability targets. Yet the impacts of climate change on wind patterns introduce significant questions about the long-term reliability of these resources. This study analyzes projected changes under four climate change scenarios to gauge how wind energy potential may evolve across diverse regions of Japan. Downscaled regional climate model outputs provide insights into wind speed fluctuations and their implications for energy generation, with special attention to seasonal variability, spatial distribution, and overall resource availability. Preliminary findings reveal considerable variation among scenarios, indicating that some regions may benefit from modest increases in wind potential, while others could experience more erratic or diminished wind patterns. These results highlight the necessity of region-specific development strategies and highlight the importance of adaptive planning to maintain the resilience of Japan’s wind energy sector in a changing climate.