[M-AG32] Renewable Energy

[MAG32-P13] Analysis of global solar irradiance forecasts from the meso-ensemble prediction system - A case study of low-level clouds

*Hideaki Ohtake¹ (1.National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology)

Keywords:solar forecast, ensemble foreacst

When lower-level clouds occur over a wide area, they can have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance of electricity if the spread of these lower-level clouds cannot be predicted properly. Northeasterly winds blowing in Hokkaido, Tohoku and Kanto from around June to August, also known as Yamase, are known to cause the formation of lower-level clouds. In addition, the Tohoku and Kanto regions are particularly the areas in Japan where a large number of photovoltaic (PV) installations have been installed. The accuracy of PV power generation forecasts and solar radiation forecasts is important information. As a feature of the solar radiation forecasts output from the meso-ensemble prediction system, a case study analysis was conducted focusing on cases of lower-level clouds that are often observed in eastern Japan areas.