13:45 〜 14:00
[MIS04-01] Trends in tropical cyclone damage potential in the Philippines
★Invited Papers
キーワード：Tropical Cyclones, Cyclone Damage Potential, Philippines, Severe Winds, Extreme Rainfall
Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a significant threat in terms of wind-related and extreme rainfall-related damage in the Philippines. In this study, the cyclone damage potential (CDP) index was used to estimate the wind-related damage caused by TC events in the Philippines from 1980-2023. CDP shows an increasing trend, with regime shifts in 1998. The annual mean accumulated TC wind-related potential damage during the 1980-1998 period (P1) was lower by 43% than that of the 1999-2023 period (P2). The maximum intensity of the relatively stronger TCs (P2 >5m/s than P1) and the reduction in TC translation speed (P2 <1m/s than P1) to be the more dominant factors for this increasing wind-related damage potential trend.
We also looked at the trends in TC-associated rainfall and found that the annual maximum rainfall within the 500 km of the TC center (direct TC rainfall) shows an increasing trend from 1980-2023. These changes may be explained by the influences of increasing sea surface temperature, latent heat flux and mid-tropospheric relative humidity, factors that are relevant to TC development and intensification.
Given the Philippines’ vulnerability to extreme weather events, these findings highlight the increasing risk of TC-related disasters, particularly in terms of intensifying winds and extreme rainfall. Understanding these historical trends is crucial for improving disaster preparedness, early warning systems, and risk mitigation strategies in the country. Our results emphasize the need for further research on how climate variability and change influence TC impacts, as well as improving early warning systems and preparedness against future extreme weather events.
We also looked at the trends in TC-associated rainfall and found that the annual maximum rainfall within the 500 km of the TC center (direct TC rainfall) shows an increasing trend from 1980-2023. These changes may be explained by the influences of increasing sea surface temperature, latent heat flux and mid-tropospheric relative humidity, factors that are relevant to TC development and intensification.
Given the Philippines’ vulnerability to extreme weather events, these findings highlight the increasing risk of TC-related disasters, particularly in terms of intensifying winds and extreme rainfall. Understanding these historical trends is crucial for improving disaster preparedness, early warning systems, and risk mitigation strategies in the country. Our results emphasize the need for further research on how climate variability and change influence TC impacts, as well as improving early warning systems and preparedness against future extreme weather events.