[M-IS04] Extreme Weather and Water-Related Disasters in Asia

[MIS04-03] Predictability of Typhoon Intensity Changes Based on Lightning Data ad Meteorological Reanalysis Data

*Mitsuteru Sato¹, Yukihiro Takahashi¹, Hisayuki Kubota¹ (1.Department of Cosmoscience, Hokkaido University)

Keywords:lightning, typhoon, intensity prediction, reanalysis data

Recent studies revealed that there is clear relation between the lightning occurrence number in typhoon clouds and the typhoon intensity changes. This fact implies that the lightning data can be a good proxy for the short-term prediction of the typhoon intensity changes. The main goal of this study is to establish short-term prediction method using lightning data. For this purpose, we analyzed lightning data obtained by the network of the automatic weather and lightning observation system (V-POTEKA) in the western north Pacific. We also analyzed the wind field near typhoon center using the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) data. From the ERA5 data, we estimated the average inflow velocity which is the wind velocity flowing from the outer edge of typhoon cloud (~500 km) to the typhoon eyewall (~50 km). Using this result and newly proposed short-term prediction method using lightning data, we performed the hindcast experiment for typhoon cases in 2018-2023. From this experiment, the predicted intensity was found to closely match the observed typhoon intensity development in many cases. At the presentation, we will show the prediction method and prediction error derived from the hindcast experiments in detail.