4:45 PM - 5:00 PM
[MIS04-12] Global Perspectives, Local Realities: A 100-Year Data-Driven Analysis of Sea Level Extremes in the Bay of Bengal
Keywords:Extreme sea level, Storm surge, Reanalysis, CMIP6, HighResMIP
Sea level extremes pose a growing threat to densely populated coastal areas, particularly along the coastlines of Bay of Bengal, where urban expansion, rising tropical cyclone induced disasters, and climate change amplify risks. This study utilizes a 100-year Global Sea Level Change Dataset (1950–2050) derived from ERA5 reanalysis and high-resolution CMIP6 climate projections to assess extreme sea level trends at the local scale, focusing on the Bay of Bengal. By integrating historical reanalysis data with future climate projections, we analyze long-term patterns and local variations in extreme sea levels, considering factors such as storm surges, tidal elevation, mean sea level, and total water level. Our findings reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in extreme sea level trends, with some areas experiencing accelerated extreme sea level rise due to compound interaction of oceanic and atmospheric changes. Notably, projections indicate no significant changes in frequency of high-impact sea level extremes by mid-century. However, interdecadal variation is not negligible, heightening the urgency for flexible and adaptive urban planning and coastal defense strategies. By bridging global datasets with local-scale assessments, this study provides critical insights for policymakers, urban planners, and climate resilience initiatives, emphasizing the need for proactive mitigation efforts to reduce coastal flood risks. The results highlight the value of global reanalysis and high-resolution climate projections in capturing localized sea level dynamics, underscoring the importance of integrating data-driven approaches into risk assessments for vulnerable coastal communities.