[M-IS04] Extreme Weather and Water-Related Disasters in Asia

[MIS04-P01] Complex Impacts of Urbanization and Climate Change on Groundwater Dynamics and Management: A Case Study of Seoul

*Ho-Rim ~ Kim¹、Kyoung-Ho Kim²、Soonyoung Yu¹、Dong-Woo Ryu¹ (1.Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources、2.Korea Environment Institute)

キーワード：Urbanization, Groundwater Recharge, Machine Learning, Time-series Clustering

Urbanization alters groundwater systems by increasing impermeable surfaces, modifying recharge patterns, and introducing artificial pressures through high-rise and underground structures, exacerbating groundwater depletion and disrupting natural aquifers. These changes heighten risks such as land subsidence and black swan geological disasters, particularly in rapidly expanding cities like Seoul. This study investigates groundwater flow dynamics in urban areas using time-series clustering techniques, including k-means clustering and dynamic time warping, and analyzes factors influencing groundwater level fluctuations and reductions through ensemble modeling, such as random forests. Using data from Seoul’s groundwater monitoring network, the research identifies high-risk zones and proposes sustainable management strategies. The findings enhance understanding of urban groundwater recharge, flow, and storage dynamics, supporting effective policies to mitigate groundwater depletion and promote sustainable urban water use amidst climate change and increasing urban pressures.