[M-IS04] Extreme Weather and Water-Related Disasters in Asia

[MIS04-P05] Influence of climate change on the late 2024 tropical cyclone passages in the Philippines

*Joseph Basconcillo¹, Niklas Merz², Ben Clarke² (1.Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, 2.Imperial College London)

Keywords:tropical cyclones, Philippines, climate change, extreme events

From September to November 2024, the Philippines experienced an unprecedented parade of six consecutive tropical cyclones impacting northern Luzon, affecting more than 13 million people with approximately US$400 million cost of damages, and exposing the challenges of adapting to compound climate extremes (e.g. flooding, severe wind, mass movement, etc.). This collaborative rapid study assesses the influence of human-induced climate change on the environmental conditions (i.e., potential intensity) that contributed to the intensity and frequency of these tropical cyclones. Observational data indicate that the Potential Intensity of typhoons has increased by approximately 4 m/s and is seven times more likely to occur again. Climate model simulations corroborate these findings, albeit with a more conservative estimate, suggesting a 1.7-fold increase in Potential Intensity due to anthropogenic warming. Further, statistical analysis shows that the probability of at least three major typhoons making landfall in the Philippines in a given year has risen by 25% due to climate change. With continued global warming, these trends and values are projected to intensify, further increasing the likelihood of intense tropical cyclones and associated hazards. The succession of tropical cyclone passages in late 2024 in the Philippines resulted in devastating and widespread socio-economic impacts, including extensive displacement, infrastructure damages, and losses of lives and properties. While the Philippines has implemented disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) strategies, this study highlights the urgent need for enhanced DRRM measures and anticipatory action, particularly on compound climate extremes, and global climate mitigation efforts to address the growing threat posed by intense and successive tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific region.