Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2025

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[E] Oral

M (Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary) » M-IS Intersection

[M-IS05] Environmental, Socio-economic, and Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia

Sun. May 25, 2025 9:00 AM - 10:30 AM Exhibition Hall Special Setting (6) (Exhibition Hall 7&8, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Pavel Groisman(NC State University Research Scholar at NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, North Carolina, USA), Shamil Maksyutov(National Institute for Environmental Studies), Alexander Olchev(Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia), Chairperson:Pavel Groisman(NC State University Research Scholar at NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, North Carolina, USA), Shamil Maksyutov(National Institute for Environmental Studies), Iuliia Mukhartova(Lomonosov Moscow State University)

9:00 AM - 9:15 AM

[MIS05-01] Past and future estimates of the land carbon sink for Northern Eurasia by multiple approaches

★Invited Papers

*Irina Melnikova1, Tokuta Yokohata1, Dmitry Shchepashchenko2, Shamil Maksyutov1 (1.National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan, 2.The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria)

Keywords:carbon cycle, projections, CMIP, forest

Boreal forests are recognized as an important contributor to sustaining the global land carbon sink under the effects of changes in climate and CO2 concentrations. The data on present state of forest carbon sinks are useful for validating the land carbon component in the Earths System Models (ESMs). The forest carbon sink estimates for Northern Eurasia by the forest inventory, flux mapping and remote sensing have advanced in the past decade towards converging, while some differences exist. For example, a number of the bottom-up and top-down approaches still exceed (by up to 2-3 times) the estimates by the national inventory report of Russia. Many of those estimates converge to the range of the land sink around 0.3 to 0.4 PgC annually. Adding ESM land carbon sink predictions to the comparison has a potential to provide additional arguments for understanding the causes driving the estimates apart, due to the ability of the integrated models to treat self-consistently the land hydrology, energy balance and vegetation processes. Here we use historical outputs of the ESM ensemble that contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 and 6. We show our results on the attribution of the carbon flux estimates discrepancies between CMIP5,6 models with the forest inventory estimates, inversion models and “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project. We provide our best estimates of the land carbon sink for Northern Eurasia by various approaches and discuss how these discrepancies affect the carbon sink estimates under future scenarios and provide suggestions for improving them.