[M-IS05] Environmental, Socio-economic, and Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia

[MIS05-11] The intensifying threat of cold-season disasters in the eastern Eurasian Drylands

*Banzragch Nandintsetseg¹、Masato Shinoda²、Yasunori Kurosaki¹ (1.Tottori Univ., International Platform for Dryland Research and Education、2.Nagoya Univ., Graduate School of Environmental Studies)

キーワード：climate disasters, extreme events, livetsock mortality, vulnerability, Eurasian drylands

Climate change disasters, including cold-season disasters (dzuds in Mongolian), are rising globally, threatening livelihoods and socio-ecological systems. Dzud is a compound disaster, driven by multiple climate hazards (droughts, severe winter) and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, which is unique to the Eurasian Drylands, particularly Mongolia. Biogeochemically, dzud occurs when anomalous climatic conditions or excessive snow and ice cover—drastically reduce pasture accessibility and availability, leading to massive livestock mortality due to starvation. During 2000–2024, dzuds have killed approximately 56.9 million livestock (equivalent to 103 million sheep units), with the most disastrous losses recorded in the winters of 2000–2002, 2010, and 2023–2024. These devastating events have impacted nomadic herders, threatening their livelihoods, and the country’s economy. This study examines dzud causes by integrating multiple hazards and socioeconomic factors in both present and future context. We found that massive livestock mortality resulted from a combination of multiple hazards and herder vulnerability. Since 2000, drought frequency in Mongolia has significantly increased, with historical records indicating that such extreme droughts were rare in the previous millennium. These droughts, followed by severe winters, have led to pasture shortages and a persistent loss of adequate grazing, driving high winter mortality rates. At the same time, socioeconomic and policy shifts since the 1990s have weakened traditional coping mechanisms, further amplifying livestock losses. Overgrazing due to livestock overpopulation has led to severe pasture degradation, while limited coping capacity, including insufficient hay and forage reserves, has left herders unprepared to withstand extreme winters. The rising frequency and severity of dzuds demand urgent action. Without sustainable pasture management, effective disaster preparedness, and policy support, Mongolia’s herders face escalating risks. In our presentation, we will discuss the intensifying threat of dzud disasters, examining their causal factors by integrating climate change-induced hazards, land degradation, and socioeconomic vulnerability, and future risks by proposing sustainable socioeconomic scenarios to mitigate impacts under future climate change.