5:15 PM - 7:15 PM
[MIS05-P02] Application of the RANGES System for Calculating the Climatic Region of Distribution of Natural Phenomena
Keywords:RANGES system, Climatic range, Climate changes, 21st century, Climatic predictors
The development of mathematical models describing the climatic region of distribution of natural phenomena dependent on climatic conditions is a significant component of analyzing the impacts of climate change. Such studies are of practical importance for assessing the state of natural and economic systems, as well as for studying the climate impact on human health. The climatic region of phenomenon distribution covers a part of geographic space where a combination of climatic factors supports the stable existence of the phenomenon. These conditions can be described quantitatively using specific climatic indices or hydrometeorological variables. Thus, the climatic region of distribution is determined by a set of values requirements of these variables.
The RANGES system is a tool for calculating climatic region of distribution for various natural phenomena influenced by climatic conditions. It uses climatic information obtained from observations, reanalysis, or climate modeling. The RANGES system is written in the Fortran programming language.
A unique feature of the system is the use of a statistical (probabilistic) approach to calculate the likelihood that a specific geographic point belongs to the climatic region of distribution of natural phenomenon. This method is based on the analysis of data for each year within the studied period instead of using average climate values only. Such an approach allows us to take into account year-to-year climate variability and helps to assess the degree of uncertainty of results. This approach aligns with the methodological recommendations developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Additionally, RANGES is equipped with a user-friendly interface. This interface allows users to conveniently define climatic predictors and set ranges of favorable values, making the system accessible and easy to use.
The report discusses the results of modeling the climate region of distribution of some natural phenomena, such as dangerous droughts, and some dangerous insect pests, such as the European forest tick (Ixodes ricinus Linnaeus, 1758). This species is one of the most widespread carriers of dangerous infectious diseases in Europe, including tick-borne encephalitis, Lyme disease, Q fever, and tularemia. The analysis was carried out using climate data for the time periods of 1990–1999, 2030–2039, and 2050–2059 under various climate scenarios from the RCP and SSP.
For the Russian territory, data from the regional climate model developed by the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory were used. For global assessments, climate data from the model developed by the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences were employed.
The RANGES system is a tool for calculating climatic region of distribution for various natural phenomena influenced by climatic conditions. It uses climatic information obtained from observations, reanalysis, or climate modeling. The RANGES system is written in the Fortran programming language.
A unique feature of the system is the use of a statistical (probabilistic) approach to calculate the likelihood that a specific geographic point belongs to the climatic region of distribution of natural phenomenon. This method is based on the analysis of data for each year within the studied period instead of using average climate values only. Such an approach allows us to take into account year-to-year climate variability and helps to assess the degree of uncertainty of results. This approach aligns with the methodological recommendations developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Additionally, RANGES is equipped with a user-friendly interface. This interface allows users to conveniently define climatic predictors and set ranges of favorable values, making the system accessible and easy to use.
The report discusses the results of modeling the climate region of distribution of some natural phenomena, such as dangerous droughts, and some dangerous insect pests, such as the European forest tick (Ixodes ricinus Linnaeus, 1758). This species is one of the most widespread carriers of dangerous infectious diseases in Europe, including tick-borne encephalitis, Lyme disease, Q fever, and tularemia. The analysis was carried out using climate data for the time periods of 1990–1999, 2030–2039, and 2050–2059 under various climate scenarios from the RCP and SSP.
For the Russian territory, data from the regional climate model developed by the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory were used. For global assessments, climate data from the model developed by the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences were employed.